n-falsifiability-truth

# Naval Falsifiability Truth

## Purpose

Test whether claims have predictive power and can be falsified.

## Read First

- `references/concept.md`

Read only the files needed for the current request.
All runtime references are local to this skill so the folder can be copied independently.

## Workflow

1. Extract the claim and remove flexible or undefined terms.
2. Write a prediction with population, measure, direction, magnitude, and time window.
3. Define a baseline, confounders, and disconfirming threshold.
4. Specify how each result changes confidence or action.

## Output

Return these checkable fields:

- Testable claim
- Prediction
- Baseline and confounders
- Disconfirmation threshold
- Update rule

## Boundaries

This tests predictive usefulness, not moral worth or every kind of philosophical meaning.

Paraphrase by default and do not reproduce long passages from the book.
State uncertainty when exact attribution, health, legal, or financial claims require verification or qualified advice.

## Example

User: "Is this claim actually testable?"

Assistant: Use the workflow above and return testable claim, prediction, baseline and confounders.